Well it’s that time again. Here are my e-learning predictions for the coming year.
- You know I have to include a Flash prediction. So, here you are… I predict a Flash player will finally be included on the iPad and iPhone this year. This will be mostly due to the fact that so many more phones, and tablets, will be released with Flash, pressuring Apple to do the same.
- Say goodbye to the “e-” and the “m-” and say hello to just “learning” in 2011. I think we will be less concerned about the medium and will call it “learning” regardless of whether it is in the classroom, computer, phone or wherever else you are finding it.
- The coming flood of tablets in 2011 will move m-learning much further along. However, I think people will be distinguishing less and less between the terms e-learning, m-learning, and just learning. After all, where does m-learning stop and e-learning begin? See prior prediction.
- With the economy improving, we will see reinvestment in classroom training and classroom trainers. I believe too many organizations have hastily delved into online training, resulting in developing courses that are better off in in the classroom than online. Plus with so many rushing into e-learning without investing the time in understanding the design end has resulted in ineffective “rapid e-learning.” I think we will see these people who had good intentions are going to move away from e-learning. For those that may be in that boat, don’t give up on e-learning, but please read “Hey You Rapid e-Learning Peeps, Slooow Down and Take a Little Drive on the ISD Side of Town.”
- QR Codes will become more prevalent in the U.S. In fact, I just started using them myself by including them in a new e-learning course. I also plan to start adding them to job aids, manuals, presentations and anywhere else when appropriate.
I am a big user of Flash and find it to be one of the most effective tools in my e-learning toolbox. Earlier this week I was very disappointed to learn Flash will not be included in the Apple iPad. I was hoping the iPad would be a great new medium for m-learning delivery, but without Flash it will be very limited in its ability to deliver the level of interactivity mobile learning deserves.
Now that I got that out of my system, here are a few resources on the history of Flash.
Of course there is “The Rather Amazing and Slightly Distorted History of Flash” created by Nectarine.
I was looking over the e-Learning Guild’s 360 report on mobile learning, released several months back. What really jumped out for me was the survey regarding targeted devices. Granted the results are anecdotal and not from a scientific survey, but none the less it does reflect answers from 240 m-learning designers from numerous regions around the world.
Of the devices m-learning targets:
- 34% support Flash Lite (21% in the USA) – e.g. Symbian and Windows Mobile
- 62% target iPhone and Blackberry (76% in the USA).
After adding these numbers up, one could conclude that IF/WHEN Flash Lite is on the iPhone and Blackberry Flash Lite can potentially be used as the m-learning development tool for 96% of the devices currently targeted (97% in the USA).
Yes, this is all hypothetical, but I and many others are of the opinion that the iPhone and Blackberry will eventually support Flash Lite. Let’s just hope sooner than later.
The e-Learning Guild did provide the following links regarding the possibility of Flash Lite on iPhones: